News
Steady recovery predicted for the NI Construction Industry
Construction output growth in Northern Ireland is projected to average 3.9% a year over the 2021 to 2025 period.
The UK construction industry has bounced back quicker than expected from the Covid-19 pandemic and the industry will reach 2019 levels of output in 2022. By 2025, the industry will need to recruit an additional 217,000 new workers just to meet demand. That’s the forecast of the Construction Skills Network (CSN) 2021-25, published by CITB today.
Most English regions will experience an increase in construction workers by 2025, with East Midlands (1.7%) and West Midlands (1.4%) forecast to lead demand. Scotland (1.4%) and Wales (0.7%) are also predicted to fare well. The only region forecast to see a slight decline in workforce is the North East (-0.1%).
Across the UK, major projects such as HS2 are driving growth in some regions and infrastructure (5.2%) and private housing (6.7%) should see the healthiest pace of expansion by 2025. We also expect a growing contribution to come from repair, maintenance and improvement work, as retrofitting existing buildings to meet net zero emissions targets becomes more important.
For Northern Ireland, the volume of work is expected to grow by an annual average rate of about 3.9%, which is below the UK forecast of 4.4%. Private housing is expected to have the fastest growth rate and our estimate is that Northern Ireland’s construction output will achieve its pre-Covid-19 levels in 2023.
The level of output growth in Northern Ireland gives an annual average increase of 0.7% in the construction workforce, slightly lower than the UK-wide equivalent at 1.0%. However, Northern Ireland isn’t showing the workforce reduction between 2019 and 2020 that is being picked up in other areas, hence the slightly lower growth rate. This means that the 65,000 construction workforce at the end of 2020 is set to increase to 67,200 by the end of 2025.
Northern Ireland’s annual recruitment requirement (ARR) is set to average 1.5% per year, based on 2020 workforce levels, which is very close to the UK figure of 1.6%. This means the construction industry would have to increase current recruitment by 1,000 new workers each year to deliver the expected work between the end periods of 2020 and 2025. The most in demand occupations are forecast to be non-construction professional, technical, IT, and other office-based staff (250 per year), wood trades and interior fit out (200 per year), and electrical trades (200 per year).
Barry Neilson, Chief Executive CITB NI said, “The COVID-19 Pandemic affected all sectors and construction was no different, many companies lost contracts and work was delayed. The easing of restrictions meant construction sites could open again and it is reassuring to see gradual growth forecast in the sector and more demand needed in the workforce. Skills are a key driver of growth, performance and prosperity and it is essential that the industry attracts, trains, and retains new talent.”
Summary (NI figures)
Growth rate: Construction output growth in Northern Ireland is projected to average 3.9% a year over the 2021 to 2025 period.
Job creation: Employment is expected to see an annual average increase of 0.7%
over the five-year period.
Main growth drivers/contracts: Private housing is expected to have the fastest growth rate (6.7% annual average growth). Infrastructure investment will also be important to future growth forecast at 4.6% annual average growth per annum.
Annual Recruitment Rate (ARR): The Annual Recruitment Requirement is estimated at 1,000,or 1.5% per year.
Key stats from Construction Skills Network (UK figures)
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The UK average recruitment requirement (ARR) is 4.4%
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The UK construction workforce is due to grow by 1% per year
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There will be an extra 216,800 construction jobs to fill in the UK by 2025
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Private housing work is forecast to grow by £12.1 billion
The full Northern Ireland report can be read here: www.citbni.org.uk/R--amp;-D/Construction-Skills-Network.aspx