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Slight upturn in local construction industry forecast for 2017

2015 was the first year since 2007 that Northern Ireland’s construction industry had finally seen some decent growth, largely driven by good performances in the housing and public non-housing sectors. Strong growth has not been sustained in 2016, however, with the outturn for the year as a whole likely to show a modest fall.
 
The industry is expected to return to growth in 2017 and expand by an annual average of 1.6% over the five years to 2021, close to the UK rate of 1.7%. These are lower growth rates for both the devolved nation and the UK than those predicted last year for the 2016 to 2020 period as the events of 2016 have injected a considerable amount of global uncertainty into the system, leading to more cautious predictions for the economic outlook.
 

Employment growth is projected to average 0.4% a year over the 2017 to 2021 period, a little below the UK rate of 0.6%. The difference between the annual average output and annual average employment growth rates implies a productivity gain of around 1.2% a year in Northern Ireland, slightly higher than the implied UK gain of 1.1%.
 
Northern Ireland’s ARR (annual recruitment requirement), at 710 for the 2017 to 2021 period, represents 1.1.% of base employment, a little lower than the UK ratio of 1.4%. This is a significantly lower ARR than estimated last year for 2016 to 2020. The highest requirement in terms of ratio to base employment is for bricklayers (6.3%) and roofers (5.2%).
 
Barry Neilson, Chief Executive, CITB NI, said, ‘Whilst output, employment and annual recruitment forecasts are not as buoyant as previously forecast, due to the events of 2016 and the uncertainty of their impact, we are still facing potential skills shortages in some occupations such as bricklayers and roofers. CITB NI will continue to work alongside the industry to ensure that sufficient numbers of people are trained to meet the demand and that those already working in the industry have the right skills and qualifications to deliver upcoming construction projects.
 
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